Monday, May 20, 2013

VMC, MLM: Along the road to recovery


Two other stocks I like are VMC (Vulcan Materials) and MLM (Martin Marietta).

VMC has a price of 55.06/fairvalue estimate 65 and a wide moat.
MLM sells at 99.53 and has a fair value of 119.
As noted earlier, the fair value estimates tend to be very conservative.

What is the story?
Between them they control most of the material for road building and construction.  If you agree the only way to provide large number of jobs is through construction, there you go.  I owned VMC bought at 29+ but sold it at about 42 and haven't got an opportunity to buy it back again; it has been going up steady.  Dumb me who needs to improve his selling strategy!  Their quarries near high population grow th areas, careful acquisitions, etc. position them very well.  VMC is highly leveraged (debt/ebitda ~6) and gets dinked for stewardship for that reason, and from that perspective MLM may look better.  They seem to control different resources and are not really in competition.  Last year MLM did try to acquire VMC but did not succeed.  Am I buying now?  No, but I am watching.  If a mrket correction brings them down, yes, I plan to buy some and forget it for a few years unless some fundamentals change.

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