Friday, May 17, 2013

This steel is a steal


AN INVESTMENT I LIKE RIGHT NOW:

Arcelor Mittal (MT)
Price on 5/17/2013: 12.90
MorningStar Fair Market value: 35.00  Yield: 5.05%

Hurting in the short term due to European financial problems.  But pent up demand for steel will open up eventually   In the meanwhile, MT is showing tremendous stewardship in cutting costs, getting rid of less profitable properties, etc.  Its handling of the labor  issues in France was masterly.  EU may act soon to restrict Chinese dumping of steel which alone will give MT a great boost.  Even if it doubles in 5 years
(a 14% compound return), it is still below its fair market value and I am willing to wait it out.

A sophisticated play is to write a Jan 14 put for $13 at 1.50 or up.  If it gets exercised, you still paid less than the current price.  If it doesn't you have a return that is well over 10% in just 7 months for parking the money to cover your put writing.  Who gives you that kind of return in fixed income today ????


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