Wednesday, June 26, 2013
AAPL: Mass hysteria ?
A PUT with strike 400 and expiry Jan 2015 is priced at $69 and change today. At $331, I would buy AAPL anytime between now and 2015 and don't believe for a second that AAPL is going to stay below 400 for long. Plus there are two Thanksgiving-Christmas seasons between now and expiry of this PUT. Look also at some other famous stocks that have missed a quarterly forecast or two and suffered a big drop of very high magnitude and see where they were within a year. Mark this as something to revisit in January 2015 and see in the rear view mirror for a worthwhile lesson, whichever way it goes.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Update: MRK, Gardasil: Needs a careful watch
While the FDA and the government appear to continue to recommend use of the vaccines in all girls aged 9 to 26, there are lingering questions on serious adverse effects including death. I plan to watch all news concerning these issues as long as I hold MRK and am glad that I also wrote a call on the stock. Perhaps, someone in the industry and knows the science better could check out and write me a note ? [No, I won't reveal your identity.] The author of the article below does not have the type of scientific credentials I would feel comfortable with, but yet the alleged settlements are something to be concerned about.
http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/stress-and-health-dr-lind/2013/apr/10/us-court-pays-6-million-gardasil-victims/
Friday, June 21, 2013
MRK: So, did I do anything with it ? Why?
Saw someone had placed a big order of the size of some 5 million either early today or after hours yesterday. [One place you can see this is http://www.freestockcharts.com. Go there, enter MRK, and choose something like 2 minutes in the graph so that you can pick out large individual trades.] If it is good
for some smart money on a day when every one's (except the long term value investor's perhaps) stomachs are churning, then I am even more enthused. So, I bought some at about 46.5 and wrote a 2015 call for 55 priced at $1.64. With a 4% dividend on the stock, I reckon even if my call gets exercise, I am not doing badly. The hedge is not a lot since it covers only a 3.5% or so tumble, but I am not worried about the long term given all my research into the stock. Who cares if it does slide further in the short run?
for some smart money on a day when every one's (except the long term value investor's perhaps) stomachs are churning, then I am even more enthused. So, I bought some at about 46.5 and wrote a 2015 call for 55 priced at $1.64. With a 4% dividend on the stock, I reckon even if my call gets exercise, I am not doing badly. The hedge is not a lot since it covers only a 3.5% or so tumble, but I am not worried about the long term given all my research into the stock. Who cares if it does slide further in the short run?
Thursday, June 20, 2013
GARDASIL, MRK etc. - What did I find out ?
I found out quite a bit. You can find the general details by
doing a google search on Gardasil.
Wikipedia also has an article. But it appears there is also another drug due
to Glaxo Smith Kline called Cervarix which vies for the same maket. So, check out Cervarix also.
Merck’s total revenues in 2012 were about $47 billion of
which about $1.6 billion came from Gardasil. Thus about 3.4% of the revenues
are accounted for by Gardasil. Gardasil
also seems to have had an increase of 35% in sales in 2012. Given all this and the current news item, it
is fair to expect some significant increase in sales of Gardasil in the USA and
Europe Since by now most R&D
expenses would have been amortized, I would guess that this drug will probably
give a much bigger increase to the net revenue of MRK although the drug may
today account for only 3% of the total revenue of MRK.
Compared to Gardasil, Cervarix seems to have hit only a 0.5
Billion revenue figure. Gardasil seems
to have gained ground quite a bit. For
example, the government plans in UK seem to have adopted Gardasil.
Per MorningStar on which I rely much, MRK enjoys a wide
moat, sells now at 46.31 and is assessed
to have a fair value of 51. Its
acquisition of Schering-Plough is considered a big plus. MRK appears in the top 10 holdings of several
very successful mutual funds with excellent returns over the long horizon. It also appears in several of the screens for
selecting stocks.
All that makes me quite interested in MRK for the next few
years. I am inclined to believe that the news today
will be a shot in the arm for MRK. Even
if it is not that great, as a company this is one that I would like to have in
my portofolio for the longer haul. Let
me just hope that the smart money has not moved in tonight and pushed the price
of MRK much higher.
Merck: Did you hear and see what I did ?
An important news item today was how data show that although only 1/3 of the teen-agers got vaccinated against HPV (human papiloma virus) that causes cervical cancer, cervical cancer rates have come down by 50% in the USA. Statistical analysis seems to show that it is directly attributable to the vaccine. Ask yourself what it means for the vaccine (Gardasil) use in the USA and the manufacturer Merck (MRK). The one thing that of course remains is to figure out what various percentage increases in demand for the vaccine will do to the bottom line of the company since this is not the only thing that it makes. OK, we got some work cut out for us, right? [Recall my goal in these columns is not to give buy/sell advice but to increase knowledge, and ability to read signals]. Download the last annual report for Merck from its site and the investor relations page or wherever else you can find it, and do some digging before all this gets priced in.
The timing is great since everything including MRK is taking a beating now.
The timing is great since everything including MRK is taking a beating now.
A really hard question
One of the subscribers wrote to me to ask, "More than buying, what do I do after I buy ? When do I sell?"
For me, that was the weak point really in the past. I mostly sold too early (e.g. AAPL at 112, COST at 91 thinking I had made enough of a profit) and sometimes held too long (e.g. BAC only to see that it was becoming a bottomless pit.) I have gotten better. Here is a nice video that really gives some very good perspectives similar to what I got in my own one-on-one training with MorningStar.
http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=600192
The question that you will probably ask is how do you know what is fair value? Stock valuation is not at all easy, and this is an area where we are better off listening to the experts. I have a Premium subscription to MorningStar which is now priced at $199/year, and among the many many valuatble pieces of information I get is a thorough analyst report and their estimates of fair value, when it is a bargain to buy, and when one may consider selling. My own experience is that MorningStar is very conservative on the fair value and rarely do you get a chance to buy at what they call "Buy At":price. So, use this as a first place to start, look at other stocks which are competitors and what price they command, read about the company's future growth potential, factor in general macro trends that may impact the company, and you have a better handle.
For me, that was the weak point really in the past. I mostly sold too early (e.g. AAPL at 112, COST at 91 thinking I had made enough of a profit) and sometimes held too long (e.g. BAC only to see that it was becoming a bottomless pit.) I have gotten better. Here is a nice video that really gives some very good perspectives similar to what I got in my own one-on-one training with MorningStar.
http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=600192
The question that you will probably ask is how do you know what is fair value? Stock valuation is not at all easy, and this is an area where we are better off listening to the experts. I have a Premium subscription to MorningStar which is now priced at $199/year, and among the many many valuatble pieces of information I get is a thorough analyst report and their estimates of fair value, when it is a bargain to buy, and when one may consider selling. My own experience is that MorningStar is very conservative on the fair value and rarely do you get a chance to buy at what they call "Buy At":price. So, use this as a first place to start, look at other stocks which are competitors and what price they command, read about the company's future growth potential, factor in general macro trends that may impact the company, and you have a better handle.
Saturday, June 15, 2013
A not-to-miss interview
See this especially if you are just considering stock investing. One more reason why I post. I want to be honest to myself first about my abilities.
http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=599730&lineup=MUTUALFUNDS
http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=599730&lineup=MUTUALFUNDS
APPLE (AAPL) - my take now 6/15
The bad sentiments about AAPL continue unabated, and now the big complaint is that Tim Cook did not walk on water in the developers' conference. The developers themselves were either pleased or at least not disappointed, it appears. What do I think?
Were I the CEO of AAPL, would I be dumb to put out the best things I am doing, right now just to please a handful of analysts and a few big mouth large investors with an ax of their own to grind? Or, would I put it out just before the Thanksgiving/Christmas season when interest in my products is at its peak? Plus, if I have announced a stock buy back and can buy, why not let it slide, and pick up as much as I can without driving the market myself?
You decide if I am day dreaming or thinking as a corporate strategist. This, I think, is a great time to WRITE some PUTs on AAPL at or below 425. I'm indeed doing it and will tell you in April 2014 how well I did. By the way, I don't do very short term options and am looking only at April 2014 and Jan 2015 expiries.
Were I the CEO of AAPL, would I be dumb to put out the best things I am doing, right now just to please a handful of analysts and a few big mouth large investors with an ax of their own to grind? Or, would I put it out just before the Thanksgiving/Christmas season when interest in my products is at its peak? Plus, if I have announced a stock buy back and can buy, why not let it slide, and pick up as much as I can without driving the market myself?
You decide if I am day dreaming or thinking as a corporate strategist. This, I think, is a great time to WRITE some PUTs on AAPL at or below 425. I'm indeed doing it and will tell you in April 2014 how well I did. By the way, I don't do very short term options and am looking only at April 2014 and Jan 2015 expiries.
Friday, June 14, 2013
OPTIONS - A quick review
An Option is what is called a derivative. Think of it as a bet made on a stock. So, its payoff depends on what the stock does; hence it is a derivative. There is a large variety of options, and many details on how they are priced, traded, etc. We will cover some basics only here. (This is by necessity a very incomplete account. Do read the last paragraph.) Also, we discuss only the American versions of these.
Two most common forms of options are the CALL and the PUT.
Note: Each CALL or PUT is a contract on 100 shares ! Also, you need to be qualified by your broker to be able to trade options. Go to http://www.cboe.com and you can find out more than you may ever want to know about options.
CALL:
A call is a right to buy a specific stock at a specified price (strike) on or before a specified day (expiry) for which you pay up front a price (premium).
Example: Suppose I believe that Apple (stock symbol AAPL) is really beaten down at 430.50 at the end of 6/14/2013 but believe it will rise higher, to say, 525 by the end of the year. I could buy 100 shares of AAPL and wait to the end of the year to see what happens. But then I need a capital of $43,050 and am risking a big amount. What if I buy a call on AAPL with strike 450 and expiry Jan 14, 2014 ? We can see that it is priced at $25.59 today, and to do this we only need $2,559 (plus trading costs of course; my broker charges me 7.50 for a trade and an additional few cents for each contract). As an example of a place where you can get information on option prices, I cite http://www.finance.yahoo.com. Go there just enter the ticker name AAPL for getting a quote, then click on the left margin for Options, choose an expiry date and out comes a table; it is that simple. WARNING: the price you get may not be exactly what you see here since option prices change fast, and there is a spread between "ask" (what sellers want) and "bid" (what buyers are willing to pay)
Suppose I buy such a CALL.
Now essentially I have the right to buy 100 shares of AAPL at 450 by exercising my CALL anytime between now and the expiry date or do nothing at all and let my investment on the option go to waste.
How do I make money? You make money by either selling back the call itself since its value changes as the stock price changes. You can do this again through your broker. Another way you could make money is by exercising your option. Of course, you won't exercise your option unless the stock price is above the sum of your strike price (the price you will pay to buy the stock) and cost of the option, in which case you can make a profit by immediately selling the stock you are buying (again you have to factor in trading costs). If the stock price is above strike on the date of expiry, your CALL will be automatically exercised without an active exercise on your part. In practice, buyers of CALLS seldom exercise, they trade them and make their money. Since options are highly sensitive, if the stock price goes up even by a small percentage points, the option holder can make a big percentage gain. But he can lose big too although his losses are limited to the purchase price of the option plus cost of trading. There are sites that give estimates of the rate of change of CALL price for each dollar change in the stock (Delta, as they call it) and things like that. So decisions like whether to buy, what to buy, with what strike and expiry, at what price, what to do with what you bought - all these require quite a bit of analysis parsing much information. (Who said it is easy to make money?)
These are the essentials of a call and buying a call (going long). The seller (who is going short) of the CALL gets his money immediately, but unlike you who have a right (you may or may not exercise), she ends up with an obligation to deliver the stock if and when you demand it. Why would someone sell a call ? May be they think the stock won't hit the strike price before expiry and they can earn something on their holding which otherwise is doing nothing for them. They may also be doing this to hedge (to give themselves a small cushion from drop in price of the stock) through the premium they have collected.
If the guy who writes (sells) the CALL has the stocks to cover it, it is called a covered call. But some write CALLS without even owning the stock (a naked call), and wow, that is risky, is it not ? What if someone wrote the above call for 450 and the stock went to 1000 dollars? He may end up having to buy it at 1000 to satisfy your demand to get it at 450 since they have given a contract to sell at that price. Naked calls etc are clearly in the realm of speculation. I stay away from them totally.
====================
PUTS
A PUT is the opposite of a call. The buyer of a PUT has the right to demand that the person who sold (wrote) the PUT buy the stock at a stipulated price (strike) anytime until the expiry' For this right, the buyer has to pay a premium up front. People buy PUTs on stocks they hold if they think stock price could go down, and they want to bail out with at least some minimally guaranteed sale price if that happens. Buying a PUT is a bearish move - you believe the stock price will go down.
The details and logistics are very similar to that of a CALL except that payoffs etc work the other way.
========================
You can get a feel for how the prices of the above change by strike, expiry etc by looking at the options tables and comparing various entries.
=========================
A final word: Usually brokers won't authorize you to trade options unless you can demonstrate that you have some experience in investing and have the financial ability to take the risks associated with options. This is unfortunate in some way because the small investor who may only want to use it for hedging (protecting oneself from big losses) through options is cut out. But then, like many other things, some of these systems are geared to make the rich richer. Stay away from options if you are not reasonably thorough with stock trading or if you are not willing to learn quite a bit about options and options trading. Not losing money is more important than making it for successful investing; when I say this, I mean on your portfolio and not on every trade, since even the pros are unable to do the latter.
Two most common forms of options are the CALL and the PUT.
Note: Each CALL or PUT is a contract on 100 shares ! Also, you need to be qualified by your broker to be able to trade options. Go to http://www.cboe.com and you can find out more than you may ever want to know about options.
CALL:
A call is a right to buy a specific stock at a specified price (strike) on or before a specified day (expiry) for which you pay up front a price (premium).
Example: Suppose I believe that Apple (stock symbol AAPL) is really beaten down at 430.50 at the end of 6/14/2013 but believe it will rise higher, to say, 525 by the end of the year. I could buy 100 shares of AAPL and wait to the end of the year to see what happens. But then I need a capital of $43,050 and am risking a big amount. What if I buy a call on AAPL with strike 450 and expiry Jan 14, 2014 ? We can see that it is priced at $25.59 today, and to do this we only need $2,559 (plus trading costs of course; my broker charges me 7.50 for a trade and an additional few cents for each contract). As an example of a place where you can get information on option prices, I cite http://www.finance.yahoo.com. Go there just enter the ticker name AAPL for getting a quote, then click on the left margin for Options, choose an expiry date and out comes a table; it is that simple. WARNING: the price you get may not be exactly what you see here since option prices change fast, and there is a spread between "ask" (what sellers want) and "bid" (what buyers are willing to pay)
Suppose I buy such a CALL.
Now essentially I have the right to buy 100 shares of AAPL at 450 by exercising my CALL anytime between now and the expiry date or do nothing at all and let my investment on the option go to waste.
How do I make money? You make money by either selling back the call itself since its value changes as the stock price changes. You can do this again through your broker. Another way you could make money is by exercising your option. Of course, you won't exercise your option unless the stock price is above the sum of your strike price (the price you will pay to buy the stock) and cost of the option, in which case you can make a profit by immediately selling the stock you are buying (again you have to factor in trading costs). If the stock price is above strike on the date of expiry, your CALL will be automatically exercised without an active exercise on your part. In practice, buyers of CALLS seldom exercise, they trade them and make their money. Since options are highly sensitive, if the stock price goes up even by a small percentage points, the option holder can make a big percentage gain. But he can lose big too although his losses are limited to the purchase price of the option plus cost of trading. There are sites that give estimates of the rate of change of CALL price for each dollar change in the stock (Delta, as they call it) and things like that. So decisions like whether to buy, what to buy, with what strike and expiry, at what price, what to do with what you bought - all these require quite a bit of analysis parsing much information. (Who said it is easy to make money?)
These are the essentials of a call and buying a call (going long). The seller (who is going short) of the CALL gets his money immediately, but unlike you who have a right (you may or may not exercise), she ends up with an obligation to deliver the stock if and when you demand it. Why would someone sell a call ? May be they think the stock won't hit the strike price before expiry and they can earn something on their holding which otherwise is doing nothing for them. They may also be doing this to hedge (to give themselves a small cushion from drop in price of the stock) through the premium they have collected.
If the guy who writes (sells) the CALL has the stocks to cover it, it is called a covered call. But some write CALLS without even owning the stock (a naked call), and wow, that is risky, is it not ? What if someone wrote the above call for 450 and the stock went to 1000 dollars? He may end up having to buy it at 1000 to satisfy your demand to get it at 450 since they have given a contract to sell at that price. Naked calls etc are clearly in the realm of speculation. I stay away from them totally.
====================
PUTS
A PUT is the opposite of a call. The buyer of a PUT has the right to demand that the person who sold (wrote) the PUT buy the stock at a stipulated price (strike) anytime until the expiry' For this right, the buyer has to pay a premium up front. People buy PUTs on stocks they hold if they think stock price could go down, and they want to bail out with at least some minimally guaranteed sale price if that happens. Buying a PUT is a bearish move - you believe the stock price will go down.
The details and logistics are very similar to that of a CALL except that payoffs etc work the other way.
========================
You can get a feel for how the prices of the above change by strike, expiry etc by looking at the options tables and comparing various entries.
=========================
A final word: Usually brokers won't authorize you to trade options unless you can demonstrate that you have some experience in investing and have the financial ability to take the risks associated with options. This is unfortunate in some way because the small investor who may only want to use it for hedging (protecting oneself from big losses) through options is cut out. But then, like many other things, some of these systems are geared to make the rich richer. Stay away from options if you are not reasonably thorough with stock trading or if you are not willing to learn quite a bit about options and options trading. Not losing money is more important than making it for successful investing; when I say this, I mean on your portfolio and not on every trade, since even the pros are unable to do the latter.
One for the Slightly Advanced Player: Ford (F)
Ford's fair market value is placed at 21 by Morningstar which also gives it a 4* rating.[Reasons: F is the only car maker who didn't need a bail out; quality improving; pent up demand for cars over the years; historically very large average age of cars on the road; employment in the US improving; now held back due to Europe but could do much better if Europe smiles, ...] It is a worthy stock even today but if I didn't hold it already, I am not sure I will be a buyer today.
But I bought one bunch I own at $9.12 . On 6/13/13 it closed at 15.53 which is a solid percentage gain for me since I bought only in 7/12. I am scared that if the market makes a correction from the current peak and also gets spooked by Bernanke, then a substantial chunk of my gain can get wiped out too. Yet, I don't want to be out totally since there is still some upward chance in the longer run. What do I do ? Here is a table I computed on how I would fare on 1/14/14 assuming I hold 100 shares now and can write 1 call or 1 put since each contract is for 100 shares.
Given that I want to lock my gain and yet do better than selling now, I will opt for scenario 3. What is going on here is simple: With scenario 3, I am essentially selling Ford for 16.78 and buying back at whatever price prevails on 1/14/14; of course I am ignoring time value of money and such in this quick and dirty argument. I do miss some opportunity if F goes to 17.50 or above by Jan 14. But if I attach any high chance for this event, then why would I even worry now? (Compute what percentage gain this represents). So, I am wiling to take that chance and be content more by protecting myself on the wrong side of that number.
Think who has a better chance to make money? The bear or the bull ? I am neither; I am being a bear for selling my stock and cashing out. I am also being a bull by selling a put. Ha, ha !
=============
For those who don't know or want to refresh:
Writing a Call is to promise to sell at a fixed price at or before a given time for a payment now called premium which I get to keep irrespective of whether the call is exercised by the buyer or not.
Writing a Put is to promise to buy at a fixed price at or before a given time for a payment now, called premium, which I get to keep irrespective of whether I am forced to buy or not.
With this information, you can recreate the table with some minor effort.
Our lessons to appear in a different series will take you there gradually.
===============
But I bought one bunch I own at $9.12 . On 6/13/13 it closed at 15.53 which is a solid percentage gain for me since I bought only in 7/12. I am scared that if the market makes a correction from the current peak and also gets spooked by Bernanke, then a substantial chunk of my gain can get wiped out too. Yet, I don't want to be out totally since there is still some upward chance in the longer run. What do I do ? Here is a table I computed on how I would fare on 1/14/14 assuming I hold 100 shares now and can write 1 call or 1 put since each contract is for 100 shares.
| Scenario 1: Keep stock and do nothing Scenario 2: Keep stock, but write a call for 16, expiring 1/14/14 at premium 1.05 Scenario 3: Sell stock now, write put for 16 expiring 1/14/14 at premium 1.78 |
|||||
| Price on 1/14/14 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | ||
| 12.00 | 288 | 393 | 419.00 | ||
| 12.50 | 338 | 443 | 469.00 | ||
| 13.00 | 388 | 493 | 519.00 | ||
| 13.50 | 438 | 543 | 569.00 | ||
| 14.00 | 488 | 593 | 619.00 | ||
| 14.50 | 538 | 643 | 669.00 | ||
| 15.00 | 588 | 693 | 719.00 | ||
| 15.50 | 638 | 743 | 769.00 | ||
| 16.00 | 688 | 793 | 819.00 | ||
| 16.50 | 738 | 793 | 819.00 | ||
| 17.00 | 788 | 793 | 819.00 | ||
| 17.50 | 838 | 793 | 819.00 | ||
| 18.00 | 888 | 793 | 819.00 | ||
Think who has a better chance to make money? The bear or the bull ? I am neither; I am being a bear for selling my stock and cashing out. I am also being a bull by selling a put. Ha, ha !
=============
For those who don't know or want to refresh:
Writing a Call is to promise to sell at a fixed price at or before a given time for a payment now called premium which I get to keep irrespective of whether the call is exercised by the buyer or not.
Writing a Put is to promise to buy at a fixed price at or before a given time for a payment now, called premium, which I get to keep irrespective of whether I am forced to buy or not.
With this information, you can recreate the table with some minor effort.
Our lessons to appear in a different series will take you there gradually.
===============
Thursday, June 13, 2013
PUTS revisited
Those who got the previous post on PUTS, now taken down, please ignore it and don't waste your time.
I took it down for 2 reasons: a wrong table was uploaded and resulted in all kinds of wrong things. Secondly, I picked a very complicated example (behaving more like a straddle for the experts) that was
not a good choice for the first example. We will anyway revisit PUTS etc more thoroughly at a later time.
Thanks to the subscriber who got back with some questions, otherwise I would not have noticed it myself.
Remeber my Warning: Don't trust anyone else; do your homework always.
I took it down for 2 reasons: a wrong table was uploaded and resulted in all kinds of wrong things. Secondly, I picked a very complicated example (behaving more like a straddle for the experts) that was
not a good choice for the first example. We will anyway revisit PUTS etc more thoroughly at a later time.
Thanks to the subscriber who got back with some questions, otherwise I would not have noticed it myself.
Remeber my Warning: Don't trust anyone else; do your homework always.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Thursday, June 6, 2013
SOME UPDATES ON 6/6/2013
1. Look out for our new blog series "STOCKS 101" outlining the basics about stocks and how I pick them and when I sell them etc.
2. CERNER split. They may become the next big company in software. Do keep an eye on this. Read the news item below. Imagine where we could be if we had invested in Microsoft or Google early on. I will take a very very close look at their next annual report and financials to make sure there are no aggressive accounting gimmicks. For now, I am betting on this horse.
3. Here are updates on some stocks I mentioned in earlier posts. [I set alerts, get many reports and use my judgment on what appears reasonable. A bad thing about internet based education is one can fall into the trap of selective reading, of only points of views that one likes and fail to see the reality out there. So, please read other comments too as I always do.]
CERNER
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ae0e17c-cc68-11e2-9cf7-00144feab7de.html#axzz2VR7AOgGl
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-split-cerner-182002374.html
MT
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1445861-insider-alert-are-these-5-stocks-poised-to-move-higher?source=yahoo
VMC
http://beta.fool.com/scavengerreport/2013/05/23/why-mdu-resources-should-continue-to-move-higher/33622/?source=eogyholnk0000001
On healthcare, digitizing, biotech, etc.
http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=596623
1. Look out for our new blog series "STOCKS 101" outlining the basics about stocks and how I pick them and when I sell them etc.
2. CERNER split. They may become the next big company in software. Do keep an eye on this. Read the news item below. Imagine where we could be if we had invested in Microsoft or Google early on. I will take a very very close look at their next annual report and financials to make sure there are no aggressive accounting gimmicks. For now, I am betting on this horse.
3. Here are updates on some stocks I mentioned in earlier posts. [I set alerts, get many reports and use my judgment on what appears reasonable. A bad thing about internet based education is one can fall into the trap of selective reading, of only points of views that one likes and fail to see the reality out there. So, please read other comments too as I always do.]
CERNER
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ae0e17c-cc68-11e2-9cf7-00144feab7de.html#axzz2VR7AOgGl
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-split-cerner-182002374.html
MT
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1445861-insider-alert-are-these-5-stocks-poised-to-move-higher?source=yahoo
VMC
http://beta.fool.com/scavengerreport/2013/05/23/why-mdu-resources-should-continue-to-move-higher/33622/?source=eogyholnk0000001
On healthcare, digitizing, biotech, etc.
http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=596623
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