Thursday, June 20, 2013

A really hard question

One of the subscribers wrote to me to ask, "More than buying, what do I do after I buy ? When do I sell?"
For me, that was the weak point really in the past.  I mostly sold too early (e.g. AAPL at 112, COST at 91 thinking I had made enough of a profit) and sometimes held too long (e.g. BAC only to see that it was becoming a bottomless pit.)  I have gotten better.  Here is a nice video that really gives some very good perspectives similar to what I got in my own one-on-one training with MorningStar.

http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=600192

The question that you will probably ask is how do you know what is fair value?  Stock valuation is not at all easy, and this is an area where we are better off listening to the experts.  I have a Premium subscription to MorningStar which is now priced at $199/year, and among the many many valuatble pieces of information I get is a thorough analyst report and their estimates of fair value, when it is a bargain to buy, and when one may consider selling.  My own experience is that MorningStar is very conservative on the fair value and rarely do you get a chance to buy at what they call "Buy At":price.  So, use this as a first place to start, look at other stocks which are competitors and what price they command, read about the company's future growth potential, factor in general macro trends that may impact the company, and you have a better handle.


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